Patriots News & Notes

What's the hold up on AJ Brown? The Patriots on Hard Knocks and Vrabel makes a statement to the rest of the AFC East.

Last weekend, as many do, I took a romantic weekend trip to Foxborough. Off season rates and no wait time at Tavalino’s (not a sponsor) is great. (Have you ever driven across route 1 when there is ZERO traffic? It’s like Elaine driving Jerry’s car when Kramer painted over the lines on his stretch of highway. “So luxurious.”)

But this sojourn to the homeland made me miss football, as it typically does. We’ve crossed into draft month, more than a month away from the announcement of the 2026 schedule and I’m back locked in. I’m essentially ready for mini-camps at this point. It seems like a quiet time on the football calendar right now, with draft hype still but a dull roar, though before we devolve into that madness, here’s where my brain is at. (Also, just trying not to dwell on this Red Sox start. Writing this on Friday before the home opener, last year every time I killed the Red Sox before a weekend series, they’d sweep someone and nullify the entire piece.)

- AJ Brown is the story that won’t go away and at this point is the worst kept secret in sports. Brown is going to be a Patriot in 2026, of that I have no doubt. The sticking point is the compensation. The Eagles want the same package the Dolphins got Denver for Jaylen Waddle (30^th and 94^th picks this year.) With the Patriots having picks 31 and 95, this would make complete sense. Here is the catch, if the Eagles trade AJ Brown before June 1^st, his dead cap hit is $43.5 million. If they wait until after June 1^st, the cap hit is $16 million. So who in their right mind would trade Brown before June 1^st?

That’s the rock, now here’s the hard place. The Eagles have to trade AJ Brown. Things have broken down in Philadelphia, (case in point the piece this week detailing how people in the organization aren’t behind QB Jalen Hurts and blame Hurts and Brown for the problems the team had the year after winning the Super Bowl) their hand is being forced, they pretty much have to trade the guy. The bigger problem is that the market has dried up, because Philly has to wait to trade him, they’re holding the last WR on the market and there’s essentially one team left looking for a receiver: the Patriots. For cheesesteaks in Philly the debate is Pats or Genos (neither are sponsors btw) but as it comes to the AJ Brown trade market, it’s Pats or bust.

Now for the harder place: I believe the Patriots would rather trade this year’s pick for Brown than next year’s. Two big reasons: 1. The Patriots via making the Super Bowl, have the second to worst pick in the first round. The odds that the Patriots will be picking later in the draft next year are almost zero. 2. This year’s draft isn’t viewed as being very good and seemingly next year’s draft is loaded.

So the Eagles would certainly value next year’s Patriots 1^st round pick more than this year’s 1^st, but so does New England. But with the draft this month, the trade for this year’s pick would essentially have to happen now, which would be before that June 1^st date. (Duh Sterling.) So why would the Patriots would trade a higher pick in a better draft, because all picks are not created equal. Rumor this week was that the Patriots are looking to deal a second round pick for Brown, which if it were to help the Eagles dead cap situation, would have to be in 2027. That’s what it boils down to, the Eagles want a first round pick, it’s going to be this year and to do so would mean to take on considerably more dead cap space. Or they can settle for a second round pick (probably dropping 20 spots) if they wait and take the pick from next year. Wolf is playing hard ball with Howie Roseman.

That’s why nothing is happening on this trade front, the Eagles want to wait, but the Patriots know this and have to wait them out. I think it’s not a matter of if, just when and how.

- Speaking of making future plans, the NFL announced that the Seattle Seahawks will be the subject of this summer’s Hard Knocks season. I believe this is the first time that the defending Super Bowl champion will be the subject and it makes a ton of sense, most teams that are on there are a mess and don’t want to show their warts to the world. But if you just won the Super Bowl, why wouldn’t you show it off?

Though in this same announcement, we were told that the subject of the 2027 summer Hard Knocks will be none other than the New England Patriots. I always knew that this day would come (though I sort of thought it would be after Bill Belichick passed, sort of like the Celtics adding cheerleaders and Red Auerbach passing before the season started.)

Even still I’d previously had a hard time imaging the Patriots on Hard Knocks, but now that we have gotten Forged in Foxborough (see my recaps in the Notebook archives) I can envision what this show could look like. I have long held the belief that this was the sort of thing that Robert Kraft wanted to do to showcase his organization, but obviously knew would never happen in the Belichick-era. Now that he has Mike Vrabel, it’s all on the table.

Plus the show has changed, no longer is it the story of undrafted rookies trying to make an NFL roster and they showing the guys getting their hearts ripped out by general managers on film.

Now Hard Knocks is a day in the life piece and largely puffery. We watch because it’s August and we need football in our lives, but we typically don’t learn a whole lot about these teams. It serves more so as a recruiting piece for your program and for the Patriots they should want that. Especially with the culture we believe that Mike Vrabel is building in Foxborough. We’ll see where this team is in the summer of 2027, but I would even be okay with it taking this challenge on THIS summer. You’re coming off a season where even your owner admits that you overachieved, you have the hot young quarterback, the coach of the year that everyone wants to play for, the coordinator of the year that every offensive player wants to join. In terms of free agent recruitment and aligning yourself as a destination, this season might be a good time to put on this display where this team is. I guess the hope too is that in 2027, you’re another year into this rebuild and are in an even more solid state.

- At the league meetings last week, the Patriots got their first win of the season over the Miami Dolphins as Mike Vrabel essentially stuffed new Miami coach Jeff Hafley in a locker the way they’re posed here. (Just alpha’d the heck out of him.) Coach Vrabel then crumpled up new Bills coach Joe Brady’s name tag (true story.) Vrabes making a statement to the newest head coaches in the AFC East with some good natured hazing.