Patriots Playoff Preview: Divisional Round vs Houston
Plus predictions for all 4 games this weekend!
If you loved last weekend’s Patriots/Chargers rock fight, boy do I have something special for you coming up in the divisional round! If you thought one quarterback will ball security issues and another who can’t help but get sacked was fun, you’re going to have a blast this weekend when the Houston Texans come to town!
I know it sounds a bit satirical and I’m not picking on Drake Maye, sure he fumbled twice last Sunday night, but CJ Stroud fumbled twice and had two snaps bounce off of his person. Add in that the Patriots sacked Justin Herbert 6 times last weekend and the Houston Texans looked like the ’85 Bears in Pittsburgh Monday night (in both instances, consider the opponents, thank you) and you have the makings of a true-blue, January-football, playoff, rock-fight!
Even though they didn’t play each other this year, the Patriots and Texans are no strangers to one another, (or at least the Patriots are no strangers to the Texans. Houston’s Gm is Nick Caserio who was Bill Belichick’s top personnel man for years. Their OC is Nick Caley who was New England tight ends coach, and someone we wanted as OC the last two off seasons, but he pretty much refused. Their offensive line coach is Cole Popovich who held the same job with the Patriots. Former Pats running back Shane Vereen is a player personnel assistant. Former Patriots QB coach Jerry Schuplinski is an offensive assistant in Houston and so his Ben McDaniels, brother of Patriots OC Josh McDaniels.
Plus, Matt Burke, orchestrator of this tremendous Texans defense is from Massachusetts, won an Ivy League championship as a player and started his coaching journey at Bridgton Academy right here in Maine! (Thank you to friend of the program, Bill Green for the local reporting!)
The sidelines and the front office aren’t the only place you’ll find Patriots, Trent Brown is their starting left tackle, so is cornerback Myles Bryant, wide receiver Braxton berrios, guard Sidy Sow and fullback Jakob Johnson. Plus, star cornerback Derek Stingley, Jr is the grand son of Patriots legend Darryl Stingley.
When the Texans have the ball:
Two years ago, CJ Stroud was the “IT” QB. As a rookie he took the league by storm and led the Texans to the playoffs. He looked poised to dominate the AFC South for the next decade and a half, while racking up perennial Pro Bowl nods. That hasn’t exactly happened. The Texans have been good with Stroud at the helm, but it has never looked nearly the same as it did that first magical season. He’s lost some key pieces around him, the Tank Dell injury in KC last year took a valuable chess piece off the board and injuries have left him without key targets at other times as well. (More on that in a minute.) But he’s always had a capable running game around him, whether it was Joe Mixon last year, or the Nick Chubb/Woody Marks combo (there is an 8th grade joke in there somewhere, I’ll let you write your own. My gift to you.) I’m not exactly sure why CJ Stroud seems to be moving in the wrong direction career wise.
The Nico Collins concussion is massive for the Texans and their having to play on Monday night might cost them their best offensive weapon. Collins suffered, what I would call a severe concussion on Monday night, I feel okay grading it as severe because he was taken off the sidelines in a cart. Most of the times guys get pulled into the blue tent or their helmet gets taken away and with the promise to get it back after they answer a few questions, then they can go back outside and play with their friends, they just have to do good with the independent neurologist first. Collins had another concussion in October that caused him to miss time. The combination of: multiple concussions, the Texans playing on Monday night and losing a day in the concussion protocol leads me to believe that Houston is going to be without their #1 receiver and really the guy who scares you the most.
On the other side of the coin, the Patriots on defense are dealing with their own concussion issue, but in this area I think we are more fortunate than the Texans. Christian Gonzalez was in the concussion protocol inside of the 5 minute mark of the 4th quarter of the Chargers game. He told a reporter after the game that he was good and posted “I’m Back” on Instgram. He is in concussion protocol, but with the extra day and apparently better news after the initial tests. Gonzalez has been practicing this week in a red non-contact jersey, it doesn’t necessarily mean that he’s going to be able to play, but I feel confident that Gonzo will be out there on Sunday afternoon.
So if we are to believe that Nico Collins will be out, then Christian Gonzalez will likely match up with Christian Kirk who sliced and diced Pittsburgh to the tune of 8 catches for 144 yards and a touchdown in the Wild Card round. Suddenly our secondary against their pass catchers is a mismatch of epic proportions in our favor and if this means that Stroud has no where to go with the ball and the Patriots defense that looked so overwhelming on Sunday can get home on the Texans QB, the Patriots will bring their fair share of rocks to the fight.
Also, I LOVE the Darrell Taylor signing. Who is Darrell Taylor you might be asking? Taylor is a linebacker who played four games with the Houston Texans this year, got injured but came off of the IR on Monday only to be released. On Tuesday, he was signed by the New England Patriots and there is a chance that he could even be on the 53-man roster on Sunday. Don’t know a thing about him other than the fact that he’s been in those Texans defensive meetings all year and now he’s in our building. Now we’re doing playoff football, to quote Jesse Ventura “psych outs, strategy, tactics being used.” (Note: I looked it up, Taylor’s been productive, he’s 28 years old, but has 24.5 sacks in his career and 8 forced fumbles for the Seahawks, Bears and Texans. I’m sure it’s the 24.5 sacks and the upside of a 28-year old linebacker that made him attractive to the Patriots this week.)
When the Patriots have the ball:
This is a tough one, remember last season when the Patriots announced that Drake Maye was going to get his first start? (Over Jacoby Brissett, 2024 was a weird time to be alive.) But they were playing the Houston Texans, one of the best pass rushes in the league and our offensive line was made up of old newspapers and Elmer’s School Glue (not a sponsor.) Experts were saying that it was irresponsible of the Patriots to start the kid in such a terrible position.
But a funny thing happened, even in a 41-21 blowout, Maye played reasonably well: 20/33, 243 yards, 3 touchdowns, 2 interceptions and was sacked 4 times. About what you’d expect from a rookie, making his debut against the best pass rush in the NFL. (Sidenote, I just watched the ELWAY doc on Netflix (not a sponsor, even though they now sponsor everything else in sports media apparently) and Elway’s debut was against the Steelers, Jack Lambert and all, though not really the Steel Curtain. Elway was so bad, he was benched at halftime of the most anticipated debut in NFL history at that point. So, perspective.)
(Another side note, in the 2024 matchup, Stroud was 20/31 for 192 yards, 3 touchdowns and a pick, on their way to a 41-21 win. But Joe Mixon rushed for 102 yards and a score, and Houston’s 3 leading receivers were:
Stefon Diggs 6 catches, 77 yards, TD
Tank Dell 7 catches, 57 yards, TD
Joe Mixon 2 catches, 30 yards, TD
None of these players will play for the Texans on Sunday.)
Drake is going to need to play fast, Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter (pronounced Da-kneel) are two of the very best pass rushers in the league, but they’ve got studs at every level: linebackers Azeez Al-Shaair and Henry To’oTo’o fly around and play with violence, while Derek Stingley Jr and Kamari Lassister are outstanding in the secondary. This is a really fast defense and to beat it, the Patriots are going to have to use it against them, try to get them to over pursue and find the areas that they’re vacating. This will be the greatest test of how quick Drake Maye can process and make decisions.
Some stats that scare you, Houston is:
- 2nd in points allowed, 17.4 per game
- 1st in yards allow, 277.2 per game
- 4th in rushing yards, 1,455
- 3rd in turnovers 29
- 4th in interceptions 19
- 3rd in passer rating against 76.2
- 3rd in Pro Football Focus overall defensive grade 84.3
This is a really good defense, but it isn’t the ’85 Bears, the 2000 Ravens or the Legion of Boom. I mean, week 18 they were playing their starters against Riley Leonard and the Colts, who put up 30 points on them in Houston. The Texans haven’t lost a game since November 2nd, (Denver beat them 18-15 in Houston) but during that time their best wins both came at home: 36-29 against the Jags and 23-19 against the Bills). Otherwise last week was the only playoff team they’ve played since Thanksgiving.
I’ll be interested to see what Josh McDaniels schemes up. Tom Brady always dissected teams that blitzed him, but Houston gets to the quarterback mostly out of their base defense and rarely has to send extra rushers, though when they do it is scary. The Patriots haven’t run many screen passes this year, but they have started implement little slip screens in the middle of the field to Mondre. There is so many ways that the strategy could go in this one, I genuinely cannot wait to watch it.
How Houston Wins:
I view Stroud in the same way that I do Justin Herbert, has some elite talents, but in a big moment, I’m not sure he’s the horse that I bet on. Running back Woody Marks is the guy that scares me, he reminds me of a young James Cook, he can move and the dude just runs hard. Marks has a day against the Patriots defense, while Stroud, without his #1 receiver Nico Collins is forced to spread it around to his second tier targets like TE Dalton Schultz. But let’s not kid ourselves, that defense is full of thoroughbreds that’s what I said, head coach DeMeco Ryans is riding this defense just about as far as they’ll let them go. Now my evaluation of their defensive reputation, Maye have us begging for salvation all night long. They’ll blitz all out, batting balls, ruining our offensive play calls and we’ll run every gadget play we can think of, and they’ll make sacks! (2:11 minute mark of the linked video if you’d like to try to make this make sense.)
Houston runs the ball and pressures the bejesus out of Drake Maye. We can’t generate chunk plays and the swarming Texans defense sets us behind the 8-ball with negative plays. It isn’t as ugly as the Pittsburgh game, but it’s another playoff game played in the teens.
How New England wins:
Drake Maye deals with the pressure, we’ve seen this kid hang in the pocket until the last possible second to make plays and he’s saved up every bit of guile necessary to get rid of the ball just before the rush swallows him whole. Will Campbell has a bounce back game lined up against former SEC nemesis Will Anderson and with chips, and extra help from Ben Brown and Thayer Munford, the Patriots scheme ways to get into jumbo packages, which helps protect the quarterback, as well as run the football effectively on early downs. The x-factor for the Patriots is Stefon Diggs, we all paid attention to how much he wanted to and did torch the Buffalo Bills, but Diggs spent one year in Houston, got hurt and moved on, look for #8 to put on a performance on Sunday and that veteran presence, along with Hunter Henry will keep Maye’s spirits up (“and your fever DOOOOWWWWWWNNNNN”)
The defense plays with incredible confidence after what they did to Justin Herbert last week, they pin their ears back and attack former Patriot left tackle Trent Brown and force CJ Stroud in 3 & outs and a couple of turnovers. The dome team from Texas doesn’t acclimate well to temps in the high 20’s and low 30’s and the predicted snow flurries could become more of a “weather event” on Sunday. A snow game certainly benefits the Patriots, anything to slow down Anderson and Hunter.
Prediction
This is an iron sharpens iron type of game. The Texans and Patriots played similar games last week, they blasted over matched quarterbacks and did enough on offense to win. Whoever gets a lead Sunday will be important. The Patriots are playing well at home and reports were Gillette was as loud as it ever has been last weekend. Brian Hoyer said that the roar from K’Lavon Chaisson’s strip sack shook the windows of the box he was in. It’s a match up of two defenses playing very good football, I think this game is different from what the Texans did last week and why I’m picking the Patriots is that New England is a world’s better offense than the Steelers. Pittsburgh is predictable and bland, the type of scheme that allows for a defense to pin their ears back, but allows for a defense like Houston to turn into Richard Dent, Dan Hampton and Samurai Mike Singletary. Josh McDaniels, regardless of whether or not his brother is on the opposing sideline will have wrinkles to throw out there and get Houston’s pass rush off schedule, instead of the other way around.
Patriots 19 Texans 17
Bills at Broncos
Outside of the Patriots game, this is obviously the one that carries the most interest to me. I’m just fascinated with how these two teams look on Saturday. The Bills defense looked fast and violent against Jacksonville last week and are playing with the level of confidence that comes with being the most experienced playoff team in their bracket. On the other side you have the Broncos, the one team who got a bye last weekend (some would say besides the Texans, but that’s mean). How is Bo Nix going to come out in his second playoff game? (Stat of the weekend, Rams coach Sean McVay is coaching in his 15th playoff game on Sunday and when they step on Soldier Field, they’ll line up against his 15th different opponent. On the flip side of that, this is Bo Nix’s second playoff game and his second against the Buffalo Bills.)
We always overreact to what we saw the week before, so if a team looks good and one team we don’t see play, we assume that the team that looked good will be better the following week. I don’t know what Bo Nix will look like coming off a bye, but we also don’t know what Josh Allen is going to look like either. He took a hind end kicking in Jacksonville. Allen had already been playing with a foot/ankle injury, he slammed his hand off a lineman’s helmet, was checked for a concussion and then had his leg bent back like he was hit by Kurt Angle. My Bills Buddy Troy asked if it was possible to overdose on Toradol, I think we might find out because we know there’s no chance of Allen missing this game. But going against a defense as good as Denver’s, at Mile High. A lot points towards Denver, but I’m not buying it.
Bills 27 Broncos 20
49ers at Seahawks
If I’m being honest, I’m kind of just bored by the NFC West. They play good games, they have good teams obviously, they make up 75% of the teams remaining in the conference, but I just can’t get into their conflicts. It’s like Stranger Things, everybody is talking about it, there’s a whole aisle at Target (not a sponsor) dedicated to their tchotchkes and everybody says it’s a great show. I know very little about it, Miss Elizabeth loves it, but It’s just not for me.
With the NFC West, I should love it, the whole McVay/Shannahan squabble, good teams, great defenses, exciting games, but something about these west coast teams just doesn’t do it for me. Maybe because I’m an AFC guy and we don’t really have west coast teams aside from the Chargers, Raiders and Broncos. And 2/3 of those are sort of borderline.
The Seahawks are the team everyone is starting to rally behind as being the best in the NFL, but couldn’t you see a world where Sam Darnold throws 4 picks on Saturday night and the 49ers somehow sneak into the NFC title game? (A 49ers at Bears NFC Championship game would look beautiful on television.) I can see it plain as day, but not enough to predict it. (Speaking of which, I was 5-1 last week, with the Jaguars-Bills being the only game I called wrong.)
Seahawks 34 49ers 24
Rams at Bears
Rematch of the 1985 NFC championship game. This Rams team is very good, the Bears defense is very bad, but there’s something about this Bears team. They dig themselves the stupidest holes, look horrendous on 4th downs and then for some reason late in the game, like the spirit of the 46 Defense is radiating through the turf of Soldier Field or something and suddenly the road team stops scoring, turns the ball over and Caleb Williams becomes 1994 Steve Young.
Weather for Chicago on Sunday evening is temps dropping to 5 above with winds 20-25 MPH and a chance of snow flurries. How do you think the west coast/dome team with the battered 37 (almost 38, February 7th) quarterback is going to handle those conditions? Chicago is a team that can run the football, and in Bear-weather, I think that decides it. Don’t look now, but the Chicago Bears are going to the NFC Championship game!
Bears 20 Rams 12 (That’s right, the Thicker Kicker drills 4 field goals)