Super Bowl LX Preview Notebook
The Patriots take aim at an unprecedented 7th Lombardi Trophy, while the Seahawks look to avenge their loss to New England in Super Bowl 49.
A lot has changed since the last time the Patriots played in a Super Bowl, back in February of 2019. We’ve had two presidential elections, a global pandemic and the Kansas City Chiefs dynasty. Lamar Jackson won two MVPs. So did Aaron Rodgers (and also switched teams twice.) Last year Josh Allen won his first Most Valuable Player award. And yet, Drake Maye took his team to a Super Bowl before all of them! (“Teams” plural for Rodgers, because he failed to take the Packers, Jets or Steelers to a Super Bowl since 2019.)
You could make the argument that Drake Maye is probably ahead of schedule and that the 2025 New England Patriots are so ahead of schedule that AI can’t even generate where they are. Reading back to what people said before the season, most were optimistic about the Patriots chances in 2025, or at least more optimistic than a 4-win team should have been. Most thought they’d win between 9-11 games. Less than 9 and you were a pessimist, more than 11 and you were an unabashed homer that was picking with their heart.
Example, I picked the Patriots to win 10 games and I thought I was going to get dragged for being a honk for the hometown team. Then Mike Vrabel’s squad went out and won 14 regular season game, went undefeated 8-0 on the road, took care of business in two home playoff games against top defenses and took the show back on the road and knocked off the #1 seed Broncos. In totality, the Patriots are 17-3, and an NFL first, 9-0 in road games. (This has never happened before. Teams have won 9-road games in a season before but never without losing a game.)
The 2025 New England Patriots have made it to the Super Bowl, exceeding everyone’s WILDEST expectations and started to prove wrong the nay-sayers who questioned the difficulty of their regular season schedule and claimed that they are but a manufactured contender built around playing tomato cans.
I saw this stat during my research, the Patriots have 17- wins, they beat only the Jets and Dolphins twice, so they have beaten 15 teams, almost exactly half of the league. Are we to believe that they only got to play the bottom of half of the league? Unfortunately, to gain acceptance as a good team, I think we need to win one more. Luckily for us, we have one more game left on the schedule.
Howard’s Way SUPER Parlay
When the Seahawks have the ball
Seattle has a lot of talent up and down their roster. Daniel Jeremiah of NFL Network proffered last week that they probably have the most talented roster, top to bottom, in the entire league. But make no mistake, this game comes down to how quarterback Sam Darnold plays. Darnold threw for over 4,000 yards this season with 25 touchdowns. He was outstanding in his first year with the Seahawks. The one drawback and it seems like few are talking about this, is that he also led the NFL in turnovers this year with 20. (Edging out Geno Smith and Tua Tagovailoa. If you go back two years and include Darnold’s 2024 season with Minnesota, Darnold leads all of football with 30 turnovers. (For the last two seasons, Geno Smith is second with 27 and Baker Mayfield, Joe Flacco, Tua and Drake Maye are tied for 3rd with 23.) Something to watch, because Darnold will give you one, or if you’re the Rams, he’ll give you 6.
The word everyone is using this week is “ghosts” and no they’re not talking about that show on CBS that always advertises during NFL games. They’re talking about the ghosts that a hot ESPN MNF mic caught Darnold admitting that he was seeing back in 2019 when the Patriots decidmated the Jets in prime time. Can the Patriots and defensive coordinator Zak Kuhr show Darnold some ghosts from his past on Sunday? Kuhr has done a good job at disguising the rush and then unleashing a hellacious collection of rushers at the right times this postseason, he’ll need to do it again. Sam Darnold is a mixed bag against pressure and can extend plays with his legs. The Patriots will sack him when they can, but if they can’t they’ve got to disrupt his throwing lanes because outside of the pocket, when the play breaks down, is where Darnold does some of his best work.
And he has help, receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba has added his name to the list of best pass catchers in the NFL. JSN is the game breaker that will keep me up at night this week, think Julio Jones going into Super Bowl 51. I’ll be interested to see how the Patriots choose to cover him, I doubt we see Gonzalez line up a lot on him, instead I think we’ll see more bracket coverage with Carlton Davis corner and safety help over the top. This leaves Gonzalez on former Super Bowl MVP Cooper Kupp. Coverage is the name of the game, I think the Patriots secondary and what they can do against Sam Darnold’s weapons will go a long way towards deciding this game.
When the Patriots have the ball
Pretty simple, protect Drake Maye. The Seahawks defense is very good, (suddenly the best in the league, but I’ve also heard that about whoever the Patriots have played for 3 weeks.) Seattle is deep across the board with talent at every level. Leonard Williams has had a career resurgence and along with Byron Murphy are incredibly disruptive up front. So how much time and protection Doug Marrone’s offensive line unit can give Drake Maye to operate is imperative to New England’s success.
Because with time, Drake’s decision making his been generally elite, contrary to the portrait painted by most of the national media this week. If you watch enough NFL Network or ESPN (which I guess is the same thing now I guess?) these former players turned analysts are roasting Drake Maye. Cam Newton (what a joke) called him the new Trent Dilfer (the biggest insult you can lob at a conference championship winning quarterback, essentially the pro football equivalent of the Mendoza line.) But across the board people are making the Patriots out to be a defense first, run second and hope the quarterback can hold it together team. Am I taking crazy pills or were these same people debating whether Drake Maye or Matthew Stafford was the MVP this year? (I’d laugh for a month of Maye won the MVP and all these “experts” do an about face this weekend and walk back their uninformed takes. Also, if the Rams had gotten by the Seahawks in the NFC title game, wouldn’t this game be built up as the showdown between the two MVP candidates? Did Darnold unintentionally drag Maye down?)
That being said, running the ball will be wildly important. We have seen how much better the offense as a whole operates when we stay ahead of the chains and get into 2nd and 6, 3rd and 4. It allows you to do so much more with the passing game, when we’re rushing for negative plays on first down, the defense can pin their ears back and rush because they know you have to throw.
I can’t wait to see what Josh McDaniels dials up, you know it will be something different, maybe even a flea flicker or something exotic early to get the juices flowing. Biggest stage, the one he’s wanted to get to his entire career, can Stefon Diggs step up and have the game of his life? What a year it would be, from free agent afterthought, to boat parties to Cardi B-babies to New England Super Bowl legend. This is not a matriculation that we see very often in these parts.
(A match up to watch is Seahawks cornerback Tariq Woolen and Stefon Diggs. Both are outspoken, generally mixed up in something. Woolen famously got a taunting call after a 3rd down stop in the NFC championship game which gave the Rams a fresh set of downs, but they’d only need one play as Stafford threw a strike to Puka Nakua (who was “covered” by Woolen) for a long touchdown. Instead of putting the game away, this made it a one score game and there was a feeling that the Seahawks were about to give the game away. Who can keep their cool between Diggs and Woolen will help their team more. (Wild card, having Mack Hollins back will be huge in this area, because Hollins is a personality but is a pro and if things get chippy out there, he’s the guy you want on your side out there to figure it out. WARRRRIORRRSSSSS.)
How the Seahawks win
Sam Darnold plays a flawless game, runs that NFC West style of offense to perfection and gets the ball out consistently ahead of the Patriots rush. The run defense of New England that had been so good with Tonga, Williams and Spillane back in the line up breaks down as Kenneth Walker continues his 2024 Saquan Barkley cos-play. Gonzo one-on-one or bracket coverage doesn’t work on JSN and he torches the Patriots secondary for a dozen catches and a couple of scores, (probably the MVP) including a big one early that sets the Patriots behind the 8-ball and they never really recover. (Picture Andre Rison in Super Bowl 31.)
The condition of Drake Maye’s right shoulder will be debated for eternity after the Seahawks knock him around the pocket while he fires wide to receivers down field. The Seahawks defensive speed is too much for the Patriots balanced attack as the run game veers off the Golden Gate Bridge and Drake gets locked up in Alcatraz by Sean Connery Byron Murphy and Leonard Williams. The Patriots make a late run in the 4th quarter but can’t complete the comeback.
How the Patriots win
Tom Brady used to run onto the field at Gillette Stadium to the opening strains of Jay-Z’s Public Service Announcement, which opens with the line “Allow me to reintroduce myself”. The Patriots will win this game if Drake Maye emerges onto the game’s biggest stage and shows the MVP candidate he was all season. If Drake Maye comes out and throws four incompletions, zero turnovers, tosses a couple of touchdowns the Patriots will grind this game into dust and finish it the way they’ve finished so many games: in the victory formation. But like Morgan Wallen and Post Malone, Drake will have some help. Rhamondre Stevenson, who Scott Zolak called the Patriots second half MVP, is a monster on first down, catches a couple of balls on impact plays and wears down the Seattle front 7 enough to allow TreVeyon Henderson to run on Dunkin’ (not a sponsor) drive-thru the Seattle Starbucks. (Also not a sponsor.)
Inspired by the beat down that defensive coordinator Terrell Williams put on cancer, the recharged defense goes out and puts a whooping on Sam Darnold. They show him all matter of ghosts, goblins, while Milton Williams is just the beast under your bed, in your closet, in your head! Seattle might be good at catching fish thrown around Pike Place Market (not a sponsor), but the Seahawks offensive line can’t lay a hand on the Patriots rushers flying at their quarterback. Turnovers are the special of the day, the Patriots score early, force a turnover and like the momentum that has been building up all season, instills this team with the confidence and just like that we’re off to Never-Never Land (or Disneyland, not a sponsor.)
Prediction
In all the talk this week, one quote stuck with me. Diante Lee of The Ringer said this about the New England Patriots. “I have seen them take on the personality of the team that they are playing and be better at that, than their opponents in every round of the playoffs so far.”
It’s true, they out-Harbaugh’ed the Chargers. They created more defensive havoc than the Texans. They endured the elements and played sound football better than the Broncos. You don’t win 17 games in a season and go 14-1 for a 4 month span by doing the same thing over and over. This Patriots team believes in what they’re doing and adapts to what they need to do in a given situation. The greatest myth about the “Patriot Way” under Belichick was that he had a rigid system that they ran week in and week out. The Patriot Way was viewed as Vince Lombardi’s Packer Sweep, “We’ll run all of our plays through this one formation until the other team can stop it.” Bill Belichick’s system was that they changed the game plan every week to emphasis the opponent’s weakness and there are few coaches who do that better in today’s game than Mike Vrabel. I believe that on offense and defense, they’re going to have a game plan that Seattle will try to adapt to and when those adjustments are made, you changed again. Vrabel has been two moves ahead of 3 really good coaches this postseason and not taking a thing away from Mike MacDonald, I’d put trust in the Patriots staff to do it again.
I thought I was a homer for saying they’d win 10 games this year. I was behind the curve. I almost didn’t pick them in each round of the playoffs, but I did because, why not. (There’s no glory in picking against your team to lose a championship. There’s no hedging our bets.) Now on the game’s biggest stage, why would I stop believing that they have one more in them now. This team has surprised us all season long and gone further than we ever could have imagined, can you imagine if they hung a 7th banner up at Gillette Stadium?
Patriots 24 Seahawks 23